By Dapo Akinrefon
As President Bola Tinubu marks his third year in office today, the political landscape reflects a mix of sweeping reforms, deepening controversies and growing concerns over the health of Nigeria’s democracy.
From the beginning in May 2023, the Tinubu administration set out on an ambitious course, rolling out structural and economic reforms that have continued to draw both applause and criticism. While supporters hail his boldness in confronting entrenched systems, critics argue that the same administration is presiding over a shrinking democratic space.
LG autonomy: Landmark victory, troubled implementation
One of the administration’s most celebrated milestones is the push for local government autonomy. In a landmark judgment, the Supreme Court granted full financial and administrative independence to the 774 local government areas, effectively stripping state governors of their long-held control over council funds.
For decades, governors operated the joint allocation system, a mechanism widely accused of stifling grassroots development.
The apex court’s ruling was, therefore, seen as a watershed moment.
Tinubu’s supporters were quick to applaud the development, describing it as a decisive step towards deepening governance at the grassroots.
However, nearly a year after the ruling, implementation remains fraught with controversy.
Critics accuse the Federal Government of failing to enforce compliance among state governors, many of whom are alleged to have continued indirect control of council finances.
The situation in Osun State has become a flashpoint.
Since March 2025, statutory allocations to the state’s 30 local government areas have been withheld following a dispute over the legitimacy of council leadership after the February 2025 elections.
The Federal Government directed funds to previously elected APC chairmen, a move rejected by Governor Ademola Adeleke, whose administration challenged the decision in court.
In December 2025, the Supreme Court struck out the suit filed by the Osun State Government, ruling that the Attorney General lacked the locus standi to sue on behalf of the councils.
Yet, in the same breath, the court held that the Federal Government’s withholding of funds violated constitutional provisions and earlier rulings affirming local government autonomy.
Despite this, the funds remain frozen, a development that has intensified calls from civil society groups for immediate compliance with the court’s judgment.
Opposition under pressure
Beyond governance reforms, the administration faces persistent allegations of interference in opposition parties.
Observers argue that the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, has devoted considerable energy to weakening rival platforms ahead of the 2027 elections.
Opposition parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and African Democratic Congress, ADC, have repeatedly accused the Federal Government of meddling in their internal affairs.
Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State added fuel to the controversy with a startling claim about a high-level political meeting.
“I was in a meeting with the president and (FCT Minister, Mr Nyesom) Wike and a few others, and Wike said to the president that ‘I will hold PDP for you against 2027’; I was in shock,” Makinde alleged.
Wike swiftly dismissed the claim. “That’s a blatant lie,” he retorted.
Nevertheless, Wike’s political posture – frequently backing APC candidates while remaining a PDP member – has continued to stir debate about internal sabotage within opposition ranks.
Further controversy erupted in April 2026 when the President’s Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila, openly advised an ADC lawmaker to remain within the party and confront rival factions.
“Stay in ADC. Fight them. Scatter them,” Gbajabiamila reportedly told Rep Leke Abejide, a remark critics interpret as evidence of official encouragement of internal crises within opposition parties.
The PDP, Labour Party and ADC have all grappled with leadership tussles and factional disputes, often despite judicial pronouncements, developments many analysts view as symptomatic of a broader political strategy. Just last week, a faction emerged in SDP expelling its already endorsed presidential candidate, Adebayo.
Fears of a one-party state
With a growing number of governors and federal lawmakers aligning with the APC, concerns have intensified over a possible drift towards a one-party state.
Defections from opposition parties have become a recurring feature of the political landscape, raising questions about the balance of power.
Critics allege that state resources, political pressure and strategic alliances are being deployed to consolidate dominance ahead of 2027.
The presidency, however, has firmly rejected such claims.
President Tinubu has maintained that political plurality remains essential to democracy, warning that suppressing opposition would ultimately breed tyranny. Yet, the body language speaks of something else.
Judiciary, INEC and credibility questions
Another contentious issue is the perceived role of key democratic institutions.
The judiciary has come under scrutiny, with opposition figures alleging that legal maneuvers are being used to weaken rival political platforms.
Similarly, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has faced sustained criticism over its perceived lack of independence.
Opposition parties and civil society organisations have accused the electoral body of partisanship, pointing to controversies surrounding elections and the performance of its Result Viewing Portal (IReV).
They also question the transparency of appointments into the commission, alleging attempts to consolidate executive influence.
INEC has consistently denied the allegations, insisting that it remains an impartial umpire.
“We are an independent and impartial body operating strictly within the confines of the Electoral Act,” the commission has maintained.
Despite these assurances, public confidence in the electoral process remains fragile, a factor likely to shape political dynamics as 2027 approaches.
The road to 2027
Three years into Tinubu’s presidency, Nigeria stands at a critical juncture.
On one hand are bold reforms aimed at restructuring governance and redefining federal relations. On the other are mounting concerns about political inclusiveness, institutional independence and democratic resilience. But there is always no smoke without fire
The coming months will test the administration’s commitment to balancing reform with democratic ideals.
Whether Tinubu’s legacy will be defined by transformative governance or by allegations of democratic backsliding remains an open question that only time, and the electorate, can answer.
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